Research Summaries

Back Propagating Uncertainty in Hierarchical Combat Models

Fiscal Year 2015
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Lucas, Thomas W.
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary The Navy uses families of models of varying detail to analyze capabilities and operational concepts. The information gleaned in these model-supported studies helps shape what the future Navy will look like and how it will fight. The current practice in the higher-to-lower-fidelity sequence of modeling is to use point estimates of more focused higher-fidelity model outputs as the inputs for the broader lower-fidelity models. It is vitally important to understand how these lower-level model errors arc propagated through the series of models and how decisions arc affected as a result. This research will extend what is being learned in Phase I by empirically exploring the effects of multiple approaches to propagating error in hierarchical combat models. This research will also provide recommendations on extending and applying the various methods- which include uncertainty analysis, design of experiments, and metamodeling. The research will be guided by application to the Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) mission area.
Keywords
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Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal