Research Summaries

Back Examinations of the Spread in Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity and Their Relationships to Forecast Accuracy

Fiscal Year 2009
Division Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department Meteorology
Investigator(s) Harr, Patrick A.
Sponsor 45th Weather Squadron (Air Force)
Summary The proposal objective is to examine the spread versus skill relationship among forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity produced by operational numerical forecast models. Statistical techniques are used to establish the distribution of ensemble spread and forecast errors. These distributions are then 6sed in a multi-stage approach for base distributions in the Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Model that is used in operations at the National Hurricane Center.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal