Research Summaries

Back Quantifying Sensible Weather Forecast Variability

Fiscal Year 2009
Division Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department Meteorology
Investigator(s) Nuss, Wendell A.
Sponsor Office of Naval Research (Navy)
Summary The objective of this research is to quantify the sensitivity of COAMPS model generated sensible weather forecasts to synoptic scale uncertainty. Synoptic scale ensemble forecasts will be used to generate COAMPS model mesoscale forecasts from each synoptic scale ensemble member. The mesoscale forecasts will be used to derive sensible weather element forecasts of selected parameters to assess the predictability and sensitivity of the synoptic scale variance. These experiments will help refine application of mesoscale forecast probabilities in operational decision-making by highlighting their predictability limitations. Tests will also be done to determine whether local observations can reduce the spread of mesoscale forecasts, particularly those sensitive to synoptic variability.
Keywords Battlespace Environments Predictability Uncertainty
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal