Research Summaries

Back Representing Uncertainty of Hierarchical and Response Surface Models to Improve Design of Experiments

Fiscal Year 2015
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Lucas, Thomas W.
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary The Navy uses families of models of varying detail to analyze forces and operational concepts. The information gleaned in these model-supported studies helps shape what the future Navy will look like and how it will fight. The current practice in the higher-to-lower-fidelity sequence of modeling is to use point estimates of more focused higher-fidelity model outputs as the inputs for the broader lower-fidelity models. It is vitally important to understand how these lower-level model errors are propagated through the series of models and how the decisions are effected as a result. This research will review previous efforts related to propagating errors in hierarchical models, explore the effects of multiple approaches, and provide recommendations on extending and applying the methods-which will include uncertainty analysis, design of experiments, and meta-models. The research will be guided by application to the Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) mission area.
Keywords
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Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal