Fiscal Year	2017
Division	Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department	Meteorology
Investigator(s)	Hendricks, Eric A.
Sponsor	Office of Naval Research (Navy)
Summary	The purpose of this study is to examine the dynamics and prediction of short-term (12-72 h) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity variability through its interaction with the environment and outflow by utilizing the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) datasets. Two new tools and their use in analysis of the TCI datasets are described: (i) new dynamic initialization schemes, and (ii) a Zero-Wind-Center (ZWC) tool. First, it is proposed to develop and test new dynamic initialization schemes for the U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) by utilizing the TCI datasets and special rapid-scan atmospheric motion vector (AMV) datasets. The high temporal (continuous; 10 minute) rapid-scan AMVs will be able to be produced over the full disk from the next generation of GOES-R satellites slated for launch in November 2016, and thus an opportunity exists to utilize this data in conjunction with the TCI datasets to improve TC initialization in COAMPS-TC and subsequently 12-72 hour intensity and structure forecasts. Secondly, new storm-relative datasets will be created with a Zero-Wind-Center (ZWC) tool, which can be used for diagnostic studies for the TCI cases. Finally, it is proposed to use both the dynamic initialization schemes and storm-relative datasets to understand the environmental and internal dynamical processes responsible for the intensity and structural variability of TCI cases, with a special focus on Hurricanes Patricia (2015) and Joaquin (2015).
Keywords	Outflow Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone Intensity DRI
Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal