Fiscal Year	2023
Division	Research & Sponsored Programs
Department	Naval Research Program
Investigator(s)	MacKinnon, Douglas J.
Sponsor	NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary	Naval expeditionary forces lack the ability to estimate the level of spending required to achieve a minimum level of readiness, or properly determine readiness based on current spending levels. It is assumed more spending should lead to increased readiness, but the exact nature of the relationship is unknown. The current model forecasts costs based on historical data and the optimal fleet readiness plan (OFRP) cycle yet, the readiness requirement is not fully or properly considered. This continuation of an FY22 project therefore aims to develop a model that more fully describes a relationship between readiness and spending and to incorporate a desired readiness level into an existing cost forecasting model for naval expeditionary forces. We will seek to optimize underlying algorithms and present modeling methodologies derived from the current cost forecasting model used to support POM sustainment requirement development for naval expeditionary forces. Application of operations research techniques such as data regression, in the development of readiness forecasting model such as correlation of cost and performance drivers used to measure and/or report readiness and their associated metrics, will be employed for a robust integration of developed readiness into the existing cost forecasting model. Through our efforts, we intend to provide a technical report that develops a model which will identify the appropriate mix of identified variables based on described readiness and force structure projections, and to consider risk to underfunding in the available trade space - and to describe potential alternatives as they are discovered.
Keywords	operational analysis, operations research, readiness, simulation, cost modeling, forecasting
Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal