Research Summaries

Back Understanding the Sources of Illicit Drug Bale Wash-up

Fiscal Year 2020
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department NPS Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Joseph, John E.
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary Counter-drug agencies have encountered many illicit bales of drugs wash up on shore of beaches around the Gulf of Mexico region, yet it is not clear where the packages originated or how long the packages have been drifting. This study will integrate critical intelligence and data collected by the US Coast Guard, DEA, Navy and other drug enforcement agencies with high-resolution oceanographic modeling at NPS to provide a physics-based solution on the likely origins of the drifting drug bales that have washed ashore. It is anticipated results from the study will also provide insight on the methods used by drug smugglers to move their illegal cargo. NPS will incorporate two modeling approaches to statistically trace the past movement of the drug bales. One method uses a forward-motion approach that starts with a gridded distribution of simulated bales that are driven by the currents and wind stress derived from of a high-resolution ocean model (Navy HYCOM) to assess where and when the bales reach locations of known wash-ups. A second method uses an adjoint modeling method that employs a time-reversal approach; that is, simulated bales start from known landing sites and are backed-up along reversed tracks driven by time-reversed model physics. Data based on the insight of experienced "on-scene" enforcement personnel (made available via USCG and JIATF South sponsors) will provide some constraints on how the model results will be interpreted. For example, washed-up bales known to be jettisoned from Go-Fast boats or air-dropped at specific locations and times can be used to validate the model output. Ensembles of hundreds of model runs will be conducted to provide statistically valid results for the study.
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Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal