Summaries - Research
Back Modeling and Analysis of Total Ownership Cost for Surface Ship EO/IR Systems
|Division||Research & Sponsored Programs|
|Department||NPS Naval Research Program|
|Investigator(s)||Mun, Johnathan C.|
|Sponsor||NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)|
This is a continuation of the same topic from the previous year. In the previous research work, NPS professors have modeled the EO/IR total lifecycle ownership cost based on a generic work breakout structure. Said model incorporates uncertainty analysis applying Monte Carlo risk simulation for forecasting future cost elements, as well as incorporating cost structures and changes over the lifecycle of the EO/IR program. Current dollar and present value calculations were performed, allowing customization of the cost and cash flows as required, complete with charts and software applications. The final deliverables were step by step user guides for the model and live video recordings to preserve and encourage knowledge management for future users and analysts of the models.
The proposed work is a continuation of the EO/IR total lifecycle ownership cost model, to allow for multiple variations and alternatives of said EO/IR as well as other parallel and non-mutually exclusive programs. Each of these programs will have its own risk-based cost simulation and predictive modeling models incorporated into a cash flow environment for financial and economic calculations. The result will be a comparable set of quantitative-based, financial and economic-based Analysis of Alternatives with risk management and predictive modeling incorporated. These programs can then be incorporated into a portfolio optimization routine to select the best and most optimal combinations of programs subject to limitations and constraints in budget, schedule and cost risk, as well as noneconomic considerations (e.g., military values based on subject matter expert inputs).
RQ1: How do we perform a defensible quantitative-based Analysis of Alternatives (AOA)?
RQ2: How can AOA be utilized to select the optimal programs given budgetary constraints while considering schedule and cost risks?
RQ3: Can a defensible and extensible methodology be developed that can be reused DOD-wide?
|Publications||Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal|
|Data||Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal|