Fiscal Year	2007
Division	Research & Sponsored Programs
Department	Meyer Institute
Investigator(s)	Melich, Michael E. Johnson, Rodney W.
Sponsor	Office of the Secretary of Defense (DoD)
Summary	Last year we showed that using the methods developed by E.T. Jaynes in theory of probability: the logics of science it was possible to state a series of logical propositions and estimate conditional probabilities for both simple medical diagnostic problems and for the analysis of evidence from a complex laboratory experiment as well as a synoptic view of the evidence in the field of Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR). We also sampled approximately 50 scientists and found that these logical methods of inference are unfamiliar. Scientists contacted were in fields of medicine, biology, physics, chemistry, electrical engineering, and, in particular, nuclear and particle physics. The purpose of the proposed work is to expand the scope of the examples and to create and test a set of tutorial materials to improve the capability of working scientists to build models that optimally exploit their experimental evidence. These efforts make explicit, quantitative and thereby meaningful the Jason slogan: "extraordinary results demand extraordinary proof."
Keywords	Nuclear Physics Low Energy Nuclear Reactions Bayesian Inference
Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal