Research Summaries

Back Sequential Pattern Detection and Time Series Model for Predicting IED Attacks (Phase 1)

Fiscal Year 2009
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department National Security Institute
Investigator(s) Kamel, Magdi N.
Sponsor Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (Joint)
Summary The focus of this research is to expand the previous effort to include the following tasks. First, interpreting and validating the resulting sequences to identify those sequences that are novel, useful, and actionable. Second, experimenting with different algorithms, as well as different data mining tools, such as the Automated Tactical Analysis of Crime (ATAC), to identify the most suitable ones. Third, incorporating additional events in the model as predictors to an IED attack. These could include religious holidays, political events, as well as a breakdown of indiscriminate, religious leaders, and tribal leaders attacks by religious affiliation (e.g. Sunni vs. Shia). The research will consider different units of analysis for the sequences, other than geographical regions (provinces), and at a greater degree of granularity.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal