Fiscal Year	2014
Division	Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department	Oceanography
Investigator(s)	Tokmakian, Robin T.
Sponsor	National Science Foundation (NSF)
Summary	This work will contribute Goal 1 of the EaSM program by addressing the quantification of uncertainty due to initial conditions. It is only through understanding uncertainty that we can have reliable predictions on decadal time scales. The proposed research is to understand the uncertainty in inter-annual to decadal climate predictions (order 5 to 15 years) given ocean initial condition uncertainty. It is well known that the uncertainties in the initial conditions are important. We will comprehensively quantify the downstream forecast uncertainty, as it relates to initial condition uncertainty, in a statistically rigorous manner.
Keywords
Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal