Fiscal Year	2014
Division	Graduate School of Operational & Information Sciences
Department	Operations Research
Investigator(s)	Sanchez, Susan M.
Sponsor	Marine Corps Systems Command (Marine Corps)
Summary	The USMC Expeditionary Energy Office is seeking to analyze, develop, and direct the Marine Corps' energy strategy in order to optimize expeditionary capabilities across all Warfighting functions. Clearly, these assessments involve costs that must be estimated from a variety of different types of models. When these many disparate models are put together to obtain an overall cost model, many of these individual sources of uncertainty end up being aggregated or ignored. As a result, assessing the overall uncertainty associated with a particular estimate is problematic-looking at individual uncertainties at the micro level may not provide a good picture of the macro level uncertainty. For complicated models involving many components, a one-at-a-time examination of cost components will not reveal these synergistic effects, e.g., where small, simultaneous deviations from the nominal value in several components leads to a very large deviation in the overall cost from its nominal value or expected cost. At the same time, the curse of dimensionality means that it becomes impossible to evaluate all possible combinations of parameter values. Fortunately, recent advances in designing and analyzing large-scale simulation experiments can break this curse of dimensionality. We will build on previous research to leverage the benefits of using state-of-the-art experimental design techniques to investigate the risk profiles associated with different energy cost models. Because expeditionary operations are, by nature, short-term and unpredictable, robust assessments are desirable.
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Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal