Research Summaries

Back China's Strategic Modernization in a Post-INF Treaty World

Fiscal Year 2020
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department NPS Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Glosny, Michael A.
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary The end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty will likely have substantial implications for U.S.-China strategic relations and maritime stability in the Indo-Pacific. This project will examine Chinese perceptions of the post-INF world and how this development may affect the future of Chinaâ¿¿s strategic modernization and strategic deployments. Especially as China has moved towards a greater emphasis on the PLA Navyâ¿¿s role in its strategic deterrence with the deployment of multiple SSBNs, along with a broader emphasis on the role of attack submarines in both ASW and land attack missions, this project will put special emphasis one the ways in which Chinaâ¿¿s adjustments in a post-INF world will influence the development and deployments of the PLA Navy. In providing a deeper understanding of Chinese perceptions, concerns, and the impact on its future strategic modernization, this project will offer policy recommendations on how to maintain strategic deterrence and protect maritime interests in the Indo-Pacific, while also minimizing the risks of escalation.

The methodological approach will be to draw on Chinese-language sources and research trips to China to provide new insights on Chinaâ¿¿s perceptions of a post-INF world and the implications for Chinaâ¿¿s strategic and naval modernization. The PI, Michael Glosny, is a China expert who has conducted extensive research on Chinese foreign and military policy, is fluent in Chinese, and has extensive contacts with military and civilian experts in China.

The deliverables will include interim reports, a comprehensive final report, and briefings. The format will be tailored to the sponsorâ¿¿s needs.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal