Fiscal Year	2015
Division	Research & Sponsored Programs
Department	Naval Research Program
Investigator(s)	Atkinson, Michael P.
Sponsor	NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary	We plan to develop and apply a methodology for estimating the flow of drugs and vessels out of South America and to analyze how Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) may alter that flow in response to actions taken by USSOUTHCOM. This information will provide insight to USSOUTHCOM on the relationship between force allocation and the effect on counter-drug operations. To estimate the total amount of drugs flowing out of South America, we will examine supply and demand dynamics. Estimating the number of vessels on the water poses a challenge because the available data is censored. The data only records known vessels, but we must also account for unknown vessels to paint a complete picture. We plan to use techniques from survival analysis and wildlife population estimation to account for this unknown category. We will also develop game theoretic models to analyze how DTOs may alter their routes in response to USSOUTHCOM's actions.
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Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal