Fiscal Year	2020
Division	Research & Sponsored Programs
Department	NPS Naval Research Program
Investigator(s)	Feldmeier, Joel Wang, Qing
Sponsor	NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary	Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) has been increasingly used as an alternative approach to forecasting complex stochastic processes in meteorology and oceanography (METOC). Its potential in enhancing the Navy¿s METOC support for predictions of radar detection ranges and communication qualities has not been assessed. The overall goal of this project will be to demonstrate and assess the skill to be attained by building machine learning short term forecast (generally less than 6 hour, NOWCAST), algorithms for evaporative duct properties, as well as other relevant variables for naval operational METOC support (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed). The research will utilize datasets from the recent Office of Naval Research (ONR) sponsored Coupled Air-Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER) field campaigns. These rich datasets were collected at high frequency and span multiple weeks in multiple locations. It contains typically collected METOC data, as well as additional information from propagation links in microwave and electro-optical wavelengths, and various air-sea fluxes. Anticipated machine learning techniques to be tested include, but are not limited to, usage of a Bayesian technique, regression techniques, decision tree/random forest algorithms, and neural networks. An assessment will be made of the various techniques¿ utility over varying collection periods, simulating a ship underway collecting data and building models constantly, and determining what training period is necessary for different variables, as well as the effective prediction period from a forecast model until the training dataset is updated and new predictive equations are derived. Initial assessment will also be attempted of data storage and processing requirements, ideally using technology approximately equivalent to current or near-future planned underway computing resources.
Keywords	Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Evaporation Duct machine learning
Publications	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data	Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal