Research Summaries

Back State-Space Analysis of Model Inadequacy

Fiscal Year 2014
Division Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department Meteorology
Investigator(s) Nuss, Wendell A.
Sponsor Office of Naval Research (Navy)
Summary This proposal is administrative, and needed to accept an overdue increment on a project that formally expired 12/31/2013. As such it is continuation of previous work. Objective identification and characterization of inadequacy in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is a key research frontier in NWP and is the goal of this research opportunity. It involves using ensemble data assimilation systems and analogs for mesoscale NWP models to propose and test novel approaches for describing model error. Ensemble data assimilation is one approach to generating a theoretically optimal combination of observations and model states, and complex discrepancies between model states and observations can be partially attributed to model inadequacy. Research will continue to focus on constructing testable hypotheses about the spatio-temporal structures of model inadequacies within a cycling ensemble data assimilation system. Experiments to test the hypotheses with two NWP analogs will be completed and analyzed. We will consider emerging techniques for multiscale error covariance modeling to describe the higher-order moments of the differences (errors) between models or between a model and the atmosphere.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal