Summaries - Office of Research & Innovation
Research Summaries
Back Propagating Uncertainty in Hierarchical Combat Models
Fiscal Year | 2015 |
Division | Research & Sponsored Programs |
Department | Naval Research Program |
Investigator(s) | Lucas, Thomas W. |
Sponsor | NPS Naval Research Program (Navy) |
Summary | The Navy uses families of models of varying detail to analyze capabilities and operational concepts. The information gleaned in these model-supported studies helps shape what the future Navy will look like and how it will fight. The current practice in the higher-to-lower-fidelity sequence of modeling is to use point estimates of more focused higher-fidelity model outputs as the inputs for the broader lower-fidelity models. It is vitally important to understand how these lower-level model errors arc propagated through the series of models and how decisions arc affected as a result. This research will extend what is being learned in Phase I by empirically exploring the effects of multiple approaches to propagating error in hierarchical combat models. This research will also provide recommendations on extending and applying the various methods- which include uncertainty analysis, design of experiments, and metamodeling. The research will be guided by application to the Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) mission area. |
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Publications | Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal |
Data | Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal |