Research Summaries

Back Identifying Cognitive Biases in Selection Boards Using a Data-Driven Approach

Fiscal Year 2024
Division NPS Naval Research Program
Department Manpower and Economics
Investigator(s) Latika Hartmann
Sae Young Ahn
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary This project will evaluate the effect of cognitive biases at Navy Selection/Promotion Boards, if any, on officer promotions. Using detailed information on officer background, performance and promotion, background characteristics of Selection Board members evaluating the records and briefers presenting the records, the PIs will use a model-based approach to empirically assess whether the characteristics of Board President and Board members affect the promotion of officers with characteristics similar to or different from Board members. PIs will also consider the role of briefers and fatigue associated with the timing of evaluation as other potential sources of bias, contingent on data availability. The research will provide a data-driven analysis of potential cognitive biases in Navy Selection Boards and offer model-based solutions for potential mitigation strategies. This approach will enable the Navy to reduce potential errors from cognitive biases in the Selection Board deliberation process.
Keywords Navy Promotion, Navy Selection Boards
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal