Research Summaries

Back Probabilistic Ceiling and Visibility Prediction

Fiscal Year 2011
Division Graduate School of Engineering & Applied Science
Department Meteorology
Investigator(s) Hacker, Joshua P.
Sponsor University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (Other)
Summary The probabilistic ceiling and visibility (C&V) project is one piece of an effort over several years to develop probabilistic prediction capability in support of the U.S. Weather Community. The capability relies on deployment of state-of-the-science numerical weather prediction models, aimed at 0-60 h predictions for weather phenomenon such as wind storms, snow storms, and thunderstorms. It compliments other technology by predicting a sample from the probabilistic density of future weather with ensemble forecasting techniques. Presently the system is called the Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). For weather information to be immediately useful, it often needs to be mapped from, e.g. temperature and winds, to other parameters such as cloud height (ceiling) and visibility. The current phase of the project, probabilistic C&V prediction, seeks to enable those predictions probabilistically, thereby providing a forecast user with information to assess risk.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal