Research Summaries

Back FA-XX Long-Term Cost and Technology Risk

Fiscal Year 2014
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Koyak, Robert A.
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary We will develop all application of the approach used in Brown, Grose, and Kayak (2006) to FA-XX or other components of the Navy's Thirty Year Aviation Plan. Depending on the availability of suitable data during FY 2014, development of the approach on a smaller-scale application may be considered in consultation with the sponsor. Our investigation will be guided by the following analysis objectives:
1. Develop an optimization model with random inputs that describes the acquisition program under consideration (either FA-XX or an alternate program as described above), consistent with its integrated master schedule (IMS), and with sufficient fidelity to use it for planning purposes, including analyses of alternate planning scenarios. For FA-XX scheduling time frames of interest have been identified as FY 2022-2030 or FY 2018-2030, which can be modified in consultation with N98. For other programs a model may be developed to serve as a prototype that can be extended to FA-XX or other major components of the Navy's Thirty Year Aviation Plan as data on them become available.
2. Provide forecasts of costs and times to completion related to the program, in either aggregate or sub-aggregate form. Forecast uncertainties will be expressed as 50 percent and 80 percent prediction intervals.
Keywords
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal