Summaries - Office of Research & Innovation
Research Summaries
Back AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Partnership: Impacts on Regional Security & Global Nonproliferation Regime
Fiscal Year | 2024 |
Division | NPS Naval Research Program |
Department | National Security Affairs |
Investigator(s) | Christopher N Darnton |
Sponsor | NPS Naval Research Program (Navy) |
Summary | To position USN and DOD effectively for the current era of strategic competition, leaders and planners need to evaluate threats and opportunities not only between the US and its nuclear-armed near-peer competitors and NATO allies, but also ways that middle powers act as spoilers or reinforcers of regional stability and global norms. The AUKUS partnership deepens core US alliances with Australia and the United Kingdom, and will expand the allied fleet of nuclear submarines to deter or defeat the People¿s Republic of China in the Pacific, a centerpiece of contemporary American defense strategy. However, this deal also generates complex knock-on effects for US engagements in multiple theaters of operation, from East Asia to the Middle East to South America, as key countries reassess their naval modernization and nuclear energy plans, their degree of trust and partnership with the United States, and their level of commitment to the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. This project investigates those currently unknown ripple effects of the AUKUS submarine partnership and will develop comparative conclusions and recommendations for the US to enhance cooperation and deterrence. Through focused case studies of Iran, Brazil, and South Korea, drawn from interviews with embassy and COCOM staff and partner nation officials, classified (SECRET/NOFORN) information, and open-source material in multiple languages, we ask: How are middle powers rethinking and repositioning in the wake of the AUKUS announcement? How will those pivots affect regional stability and security, with what upshot for US Combatant Commands and Fleets? What are the likely vulnerabilities or transformations of global norms on nuclear nonproliferation, and how do these affect prospects for naval nuclear power exports by countries such as France, India, Russia, and China? |
Keywords | Arms Control, Proliferation, Nuclear Deterrence, Submarines, Alliance Cohesion, Integrated Deterrence |
Publications | Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal |
Data | Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal |