Research Summaries

Back Understanding the Sources of Illicit Drug Bale Wash-up

Fiscal Year 2019
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Joseph, John E.
Radko, Timour
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary Counter-drug agencies have encountered many illicit bales of drugs wash up on shore of beaches around the Gulf of Mexico region, yet it is not clear where the packages originated or how long the packages had been drifting. This trend has almost quadrupled in the number of cases in the past few years. This study will apply high-resolution oceanographic modeling at NPS to provide a physics-based solution that narrows the likely origins of the drifting drug bales that have washed ashore and will shed light on their “patterns of life.” The study will integrate critical intelligence information collected by the US Coast Guard, DEA, Navy and other drug enforcement agencies to help guide and constrain the model to produce statistically significant, realistic output. Results from the study will also provide insight on the methods used by drug smugglers to move their illegal cargo. At least two modeling approaches will be employed to statistically trace the past movement of the drug bales. One method uses a forward-motion approach that starts with a gridded distribution of simulated bales that are driven by the currents and wind stress derived from a high-resolution ocean model (Navy HYCOM) to assess where and when the bales would reach locations of known wash-ups. A second method uses an adjoint modeling approach that employs a time-reversal method; that is, simulated bales are backed-up along reversed tracks from their landing locations driven by time-reversed model physics. Information based on the insight of experienced "on-scene" enforcement personnel (made available via USCG and JIATF South) will provide constraints on how the model results will be interpreted. For example, washed-up bales known to be jettisoned from Go-Fast boats or airdropped at specific locations and times can be used to validate the model output. Ensembles of hundreds of model runs will be conducted to provide statistically valid results for the study.
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