Research Summaries

Back Air Combat Analytic Model

Fiscal Year 2015
Division Research & Sponsored Programs
Department Naval Research Program
Investigator(s) Kress, Moshe
Sponsor NPS Naval Research Program (Navy)
Summary The US Navy operates I 04 aircraft types, which are grouped and assigned into 22 mission sets. The assignment is unique; each aircraft type is associated with a single mission set. The physical and operational characteristics of each aircraft type are tuned according to the tactical and operational requirements generated by the mission set. As aircraft age and mission sets evolve, new aircraft need to be developed, produced, and procured. In particular, there is a continuous need to examine and analyze the match between existing and evolving requirements in mission sets and the physical and operational characteristics of aircraft. The common practice for analyzing this match is through detailed computer simulations. The benefits of such simulations are clear; they emulate physical and behavioral realities and often generate valuable insights regarding relations between operational requirements and physical and behavioral capabilities. The downsides of computer simulations are lack of transparency - their "engines" arc typically black boxes, which are difficult to verify and validate - and most of all they are costly in terms of time and money. Notwithstanding these limitations, simulations arc indispensable at advanced R&D stages when fine-tuning of characteristics is crucial. However, lower resolution analytically tractable models at the early stages of weapons' R&D process, and perhaps even in AoA studies, can be beneficial due to their lower development costs and the ability to produce analytical insights. Such models can provide "first-order" results regarding in-context operational effectiveness of certain mixes of physical characteristics and capabilities, and complement the more higher-granularity simulation models. Specifically, fighter aircrafts comprise multiple attributes such as maneuverability, stealth, velocity, survivability and on-board weapons' effectiveness. In designing a new fighter aircraft, the challenge is to strike the right balance among these attributes subject to budget constraints and mission demands. The proposed research will focus on Navy fighter aircraft (air-to-air and air-to-ground) and, if time permits, ASW too. The models will be based on a many-on-many stochastic duel models that capture both force-on-force attritions and the uncertainty inherent therein. Relations among sensors' range and reliability, weapons' effectiveness, platform maneuverability, and stealth, as well as other attributes such as endurance and tactics, will be captured within this framework of stochastic duel models. The effect of modem technologies (e.g., autonomous aircraft) will also be represented in the proposed analytic framework.
Publications Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal
Data Publications, theses (not shown) and data repositories will be added to the portal record when information is available in FAIRS and brought back to the portal