25
Alternatives’
Strengths/Weaknesses
Trapezoid: Needs Analysis
Needs Analysis
Obj Analysis
Alt Generation
Modeling
Analysis
Conclusions
1.0-
0.8-
0.6-
0.4-
0.2-
   0-
Probability
0            100      200   300      400         500           600         700
Time (hours)
Time to INITIAL Detect of Red Submarines
Tripwire and WOM achieve 80% Pd by 130 hours
LAG and Sea TENTACLE do not achieve 80% Pd until more than 230 hours
Sea TENTACLE
Littoral Action Group
Tripwire
War of Machines
Warning-time sensitive performance
To compare and contrast the four alternatives selected by SEA-8 we considered when a given probability of achieving initial detection on RED submarines would be established.  Given our specific scenario modeling, the following curves were generated. The specific modeling results shown here provide insight into real-world performance. The relative magnitudes may be used to compare how the alternatives might perform. (CLICK) Tripwire and War of Machines achieve an 80% probability of initially detecting an enemy submarine within the first 130 hours of the scenario.  (CLICK) Whereas, Sea TENTACLE and the Littoral Action Group alternatives require about 100 more hours of scenario timeline before they reach the same milestone. (CLICK) Also, of note on this graph, is that the performance of each alternative is warning-time sensitive.  For example, if Sea TENTACLE or the Littoral Action Group could arrive in area earlier and be on-station prior to Red’s departure from port then their detection of Red submarines would be as decisive as the other alternatives. (CLICK)