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Trapezoid: Needs Analysis
ASW Results, Insights and Recommendations
oREACTION TIME
oEnemy submarines are vulnerable in restricted waterways
oEnemy timelines are unpredictable
oQuick reaction systems hedge uncertainty
oStrategic air least sensitive to enemy initiative
Needs Analysis
Obj Analysis
Alt Generation
Modeling
Analysis
Conclusions
•Reaction time is the key driver to seizing the initiative.
•The enemy submarine was most vulnerable entering and exiting their home ports, due primarily to restricted waterways, where position and movements were predictable.  Therefore, detecting and tracking these submarines as they were leaving port became an important part of SEA-8’s research study.  However, enemy force actions were uncertain and (without any future intelligence gathering advantage) attempting to determine when and from where they were to deploy their submarines was difficult.  Warning timelines were often ambiguous and unpredictable.  During modeling and simulation, SEA-8 was unable to begin ASW operations within 3 days or seize the initiative within 10 days without leveraging the delivery flexibility and speed associated with strategic air assets such as B-2 and B-52.  In order to hedge against uncertain enemy timelines, quick reaction and rapidly deployable system architectures proved advantageous.  To this end, airborne deployment methods that used strategic air to insert non-traditional ASW assets appear to be least sensitive to enemy initiative.
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