2008 Opium Trends in Afghanistan

Recent trends in Afghanistan's poppy cultivation include an overall decrease in output nationally, but an increase in the production and cultivation capabilities of Helmand Province, the true epicenter of Afghanistan’s poppy cultivation and opium production. According to UN statistics, Helmand province alone cultivated 66 percent of the country’s opium poppy in 2008. Almost 98% of Afghanistan’s opium derives from southern and southwestern Afghanistan, up from 88% in 2007. Farmers continue to cultivate the crop where security remains elusive, corruption is rampant, and high yields are likely. Farmers in the north have abandoned the crop due to increased pressure, better governance, and enhanced security which allows for the implementation of alternative livelihood programs. "The number of opium poppy-free provinces increased to 18 in 2008 compared to 13 in 2007 and six in 2006,” according the UNODC’s 2008 Afghanistan Opium Survey.

* Poppy-free provinces in 2007 and 20081

Global market and cultivationexpectations in 2009:
The decrease in overall opium production has been attributed to the falling price of opium (about 20%), a trend that is likely to continue for the next three years due to the substantial overproduction witnessed in 2007 and 2008. The UN suggests there is no province that will likely see an increase in poppy cultivation in 2009. Additionally, the 18 poppy-free provinces from 2008 are expected to remain so this year. Baghlan and Herat will likely be the next two provinces to be listed as poppy-free as cultivation is expected to plummet and eradication measures expanded. The UN also predicts a decrease in opium cultivation in seven provinces: Badakhshan, Badghis, Faryab, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar and Laghman..2

Figure 1- Overall Poppy Cultivation Expectations for 2009 (PDF)

Heroin/Morphine Processing:
Domestic production of morphine and heroin has increased substantially since 2004. Illicit precursor chemicals needed to facilitate the chemical conversion of opium into morphine base and heroin, some 1,500 tones of acetic anhydride (heroin processing) and 9,000 tones of other chemicals, are trafficked through Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan each year. Interdiction measures have succeeded in confiscating some shipments but have not made any significant impact on the industry (see chart below).3 Additionally, resistance to government eradication efforts have plagued counternarcotics personnel since 2005, a trend that is steadily increasing as insurgents actively participate in the "protection" of poppy fields, refinement laboratories, trafficking routes and markets. For more, see Figure 3- Heroin Production in Afghanistan: Helmand, Nangarhar and Badakhshan (PDF)

Monitoring the Trafficking of Heroin to Europe (PDF)

2009: NATO's Counternarcotics Approach
In late 2008, NATO officials announced plans to target drug traffickers and laboratories associated with insurgents for the first time. The plan drew criticism from some European NATO countries citing legal concerns over killing unarmed traffickers. Critics claim International law prohibits nations from using military force against criminals, including drug traffickers.4 Nevertheless, senior NATO officials, US military leaders, and Canadian officials have announced the upcoming initiative to target traffickers has been settled. "NATO will not act outside international law. This nexus between the insurgency and the narcotics business leads to the killing of our soldiers in Afghanistan," NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters in February.5 "We have full agreement … that we can go indeed after laboratories where the poppies are brought in and turned into heroin … or after the guys and the people who bring in the precursors," he said.

To contact us about our program:  ccsinfo@nps.edu | Last Updated: 16 April 2009.