Selected research projects in process.
|CTF GLOBAL ECCO PROJECT|
|Sponsor||Office of the Secretary of Defense, Combating Terrorism Fellowship Program|
|Objective||Build and strengthen CTFP's global alumni network of CT experts and practitioners through innovative and engaging technologies and techniques that both enable and encourage collaborative partnerships between nations, organizations, and cultures.|
|Summary||The Global Education and Collaboration Community Online (ECCO) provides an accessible web platform to help CTFP alumni communicate and collaborate with each other. The website provides features like blogs, discussion boards, terrorism news feeds, as well as innovative games that highlight the central dynamics of insurgency, terrorism, counterinsurgency, and counterterrorism. In addition, the website also is the home for the quarterly journal Combating Terrorism Exchange (CTX), which provides a unique venue outlet for sharing international experiences in combating terrorism.|
|LONG-TERM STRATEGY SEMINAR: SOF 2030|
|Objective||In spring 2011, an office in the Pentagon presented 14 of us with the opportunity to address “SOF 2030” – what should decision makers be thinking about today in order to prepare SOF for 2030?|
|Summary||In September 2011, Professor Anna Simons ran the department's third OSD-sponsored Long Term Strategy Seminar with DA students. 2011's topic was "SOF 2030." Twelve U.S. officers and one CWO participated, representing Navy SEALs, Army Special Forces, Air Force Special Operations, the Air Force, and the Marine Corps. Students briefed their results in Washington in Fall 2011 to audiences in the Pentagon and at the CIA. This report summarizes that 50-minute long brief.|
|Researchers||Hy Rothstein/John Arquilla|
|Sponsor||Office of the Secretary of Defense/Rapid Response Technology Office.|
|Objective||Develop a range of options to achieve our objectives in Afghanistan effectively and efficiently. The most capable and knowledgeable people will be enlisted to address issues in their subject matter expertise.|
The United States Armed Forces and their allies are engaged in irregular warfare against terrorists, insurgents, and armed criminals around the world. Currently, this war is most intense in Afghanistan. During the last year the US has sustained its greatest losses in Afghanistan since the war started in 2001. What is the strategy for Afghanistan? More importantly, what is the outcome we seek?
Knowing what success will look like is an essential prerequisite for developing strategy. To do this, a comprehensive framework will be developed to understand the dynamics of war and politics in Afghanistan, in particular, and the region in general.
|CORE LAB PHILIPPINES PROJECT|
|Researchers||Nancy Roberts/Sean Everton|
|Sponsor||Combating Terrorism Fellowship Office|
|Objective||Using 30 years of combat reporting data from the Philippines, the researchers will test alternative theories of irregular warfare through statistical analysis (e.g., pooled time series), empirical investigation (e.g., social network analysis) and comparative case studies. These same approaches should will be used to identify and sort through various determinants (and non-determinants) of conflict.|
Since 9/11, the "global war on terror" has been pursued by the United States in a variety of locales using two fundamentally distinct military approaches to combat terrorism and insurgencies: kinetic and nonkinetic. Kinetic strategies are those that emphasize destruction of an enemy’s capacity to fight by using kinetic means (the clash of arms) to “find, fix, and finish,” the enemy’s war-making machine (personnel, weapons, communications gear, supplies, etc). Nonkinetic approaches emphasize the degrading of the enemy’s will to fight by focusing on the material, cultural, and spiritual needs of the relevant population, a population which serves as the fundamental support element for terrorists and insurgents. In the battle against extremists in the Philippines (e.g., Abu Sayyaf Group, Jemaah Islamiah, Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Moro National Liberation Front, New Peoples Army, Raja Solaiman Movement), the Philippine government, strongly supported by the United States, has pursued a mix of both approaches, but to a much greater extent, the emphasis has been on nonkinetic, rather than kinetic, approaches.
Unfortunately, these two approaches to have been subjected to limited empirical investigation. To date, most research has been done using qualitative methods (narrative textual histories of specific insurgencies or groups). As such we have yet to establish whether certain approaches are more effective than others, or whether some work better in certain situations while other approaches work better in other types of situations. Put differently, our theoretical musings exist in a virtual empirical vacuum.
The CORE Lab’s Philippine research project seeks to address this vacuum. Building upon previous research that collected and analyzed Philippine insurgency data from 2001-2004, we are currently recording and gleaning an additional 26 years of data from the Philippines, giving us a total of thirty years of temporal data (1978-2008). In addition, we are collecting relational, geospatial and civil affairs data that will allow us to combine various types of analytic approaches.
|DMDC DATA VULNERABILITY|
|Researchers||Brian Greenshields/David Tucker|
|Sponsor||Defense Manpower Data Center|
|Objective||Assess the threats posed by state and non-state actors to DMDC data and the consequences if that data were compromised.|
|Summary||The project provides a basis for determining the most efficient and effective ways to mitigate threats to DoD operations and personnel from the loss of manpower data. It assists DMDC and operational units in enhancing the security of their personnel and operations.|