New The National Interest article by John Arquilla

The Coming Cyberwar

Despite having had decades to absorb the implications of a range of advances in information technology, the U.S. government remains largely unprepared for cyberwar. Read the full article here.

New Book--The Sovereignty Solution

In The Sovereignty Solution: A Commonsense Approach to Global Security (Naval Institute Press, 2011) Professor Anna Simons and Department of Defense Analysis graduates LTC Joe McGraw, USA, and LTC Duane Lauchengco, USA, propose a foreign policy emphasizing every nation's responsibility--including America's--to control security and the social fabric within its own borders.

Simons and her Special Forces coauthors argue that the U.S. has never articulated the clear position on national defense, "respect our sovereignty and we will respect yours." The Sovereignty Solution is a radical, yet sensible, approach to global security and world order that doesn't require the U.S. to engage in global policing or nation building.

The book's goal is to provoke heightened awareness of the gaps and disconnects between what the U.S. says and what it does, how it wants to be perceived and how it is perceived. Without leaning left or right, the authors hope to initiate a serious debate and to force Washington to rethink what it sends servicemen and women abroad to do.

The Sovereignty Solution grew out of the Long Term Strategy Seminar at NPS (2006), sponsored by Andrew W. Marshall and the Office of Net Assessment. Ten officers in the DA department participated in the study and were instrumental in pulling the overall argument together.

New Foreign Policy Article by John Arquilla

DA Department Chair John Arquilla's new article takes on Francis Fukuyama's view of history. Read the full article here.

Defense Analysis Welcomes Its First NCOs

The Department reached another milestone last month when it welcomed its first-ever enlisted students to both the Special Operations/Irregular Warfare curriculum and the Information Operations curriculum. Army MSG James Monroe (PSYOP) and Marine Gunny Sgt John Wear (Intel) will spend the next 18-months with their US and international officer counterparts working toward their graduate degrees in Defense Analysis and Joint Information Operations, respectively. These exceptional NCOs have already hit the ground running, and will help set the conditions for the continued presence of seasoned leaders from our NCO corps!

Meet DA's First MILFAC

Meet LTC Mike Richardson, an Army Special Forces officer and DA’s first official MILFAC (military faculty member). While DA has hosted two Senior Service fellows since 1994 and more recently has added an O-6 SOF Chair to oversee the program on behalf of SOCOM, LTC Richardson is the first officer assigned to the Department with the sole purpose of teaching. This new billet is part of an agreement between USASOC and NPS that underscores ARSOF’s commitment to the Special Operations /Irregular Warfare graduate program. Having finished his PhD work at UCLA, LTC Richardson will teach six sections a year and complete his dissertation during his 3-year assignment to NPS. LTC Richardson’s previous job was with the Asymmetric Warfare Group.

New Course Offering

Dr. Leo Blanken has developed a new course entitled “The Scientific Study of War.” This course asks the question: "can the hard sciences be a useful model for studying war and warfare?" He begins by tracing the debate over the scientific analysis of war through the history of military thought, focusing on the debate over logical-positivism. The course then looks at various methodological approaches to understanding organized conflict and assesses their strengths and limitations. These will include generalizable theory, rational-choice theories, hypothesis testing using quantitative and qualitative approaches, as well as simulation/modeling. The substantive issues covered include the outbreak of war, the economic and technical aspects of war, as well as the execution of wartime policy at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This course was recently approved by the NPS Academic Council. You can contact Dr Blanken at ljblanke (at) nps.edu for more details.

New Faculty Book Dives Into Iraqi Conflict

Heather Gregg, Assistant Professor with NPS’ Department of Defense Analysis (DA), teamed up with senior DA faculty Hy S. Rothstein and John Arquilla to co-edit and publish the book, The Three Circles of War: Understanding the Dynamics of Conflict in Iraq. Three Circles is a comprehensive analysis of combat operations in Iraq, introducing the concept that the conflict in the Middle East nation lies in three separate and distinct 'circles.'

Noting the three circles as interstate conflict, civil war, and insurgency, the book delves into complex issues such as Iraqi culture, theatre stabilization efforts, legal and ethical issues, and processes for measuring war and victory. While each circle, or segment of the conflict, shares similarities and distinct characteristics, they are also both intertwined and complementary, and the authors suggest U.S. national policy and military strategy should focus on addressing each circle on individual levels.

“We have articles from a half-dozen experts from different fields,” said Gregg. “The book explores our efforts in Iraq from a variety of perspectives. It’s a big advantage to bring together different scholars and authors to create a work like this. We, as editors, were able to draw from a huge range of experiences.”

Lighthouse Goes Viral

The recent combat evaluation of CORE Lab methodology and Lighthouse (formerly OpenFIST) technology in Afghanistan proved very effective in mapping the human terrain. The pilot program employed eight smart phones, in three villages over a 90 day collection effort. This marked the first time relational data had been captured in the field and quickly exploited for tactical and operational use. This technology married with CORE Lab advanced analytical methods (eg., social network analysis) allows commanders to visualize the social space and illuminate social networks in order to craft intervention strategies. The SOF community has requested the CORE Lab to expand the effort in support of village stability operations in Afghanistan. The CORE lab will also expand support to other SOF elements in the Arabian Peninsula and Law Enforcement Agencies like the Salinas Anti-gang Taskforce. An expanded overview is included in the NPS CORE Lab/Lighthouse Executive Summary (click here for more).

95th CA Brigade Commander Visits Defense Analysis

Army COL Jay Wolff, commander of the Army’s only Civil Affairs (CA) brigade and a DA alumni, spent the day at NPS on Jan 24 to get an update on the Special Operations/Irregular Warfare (SO/IW) curriculum and visit with CA officers currently attending the program. After getting an update brief on the curriculum and listening to CORE Lab presentations, COL Wolff had lunch with students and faculty. COL Wolff affirmed his support for the SO/IW program and stated he will try to make sure the CA community gets the right folks in the right numbers into DA. But he noted that both the demands of standing-up a second active duty CA brigade under FORCECOM and the continuing PERSTEMPO of his officers deployed around the world will prevent him from sending the numbers he would like.