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Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy
 By: John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, United States Dept. of Defense. Office of the Secretary of States Dept. of Defense
Netwar-like cyberwar-describes a new spectrum of conflict that is emerging in the wake of the information revolution. Netwar includes conflicts waged, on the one hand, by terrorists, criminals, gangs, and ethnic extremists; and by civil-society activists (such as cyber activists or WTO protestors) on the other. What distinguishes netwar is the networked organizational structure of its practitioners-with many groups actually being leaderless-and their quickness in coming together in swarming attacks. To confront this new type of conflict, it is crucial for governments, military, and law enforcement to begin networking themselves.
Publisher: RAND Distribution Services
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
The Advent of Netwar
 By John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, United States Dept. of Defense, National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of organization, with unusual implications for how societies are organized and conflicts are conducted. "Netwar" is an emerging consequence. The term refers to societal conflict and crime, short of war, in which the antagonists are organized more as sprawling "leaderless" networks than as tight-knit hierarchies. Many terrorists, criminals, fundamentalists, and ethno-nationalists are developing netwar capabilities. A new generation of revolutionaries and militant radicals is also emerging, with new doctrines, strategies, and technologies that support their reliance on network forms of organization. Netwar may be the dominant mode of societal conflict in the 21st century. These conclusions are implied by the evolution of societies, according to a framework presented in this RAND study. The emergence of netwar raises the need to rethink strategy and doctrine to conduct counternetwar. Traditional notions of war and low-intensity conflict as a sequential process based on massing, maneuvering, and fighting will likely prove inadequate to cope with nonlinear, swarm-like, information-age conflicts in which societal and military elements are closely intermingled.
Publisher: RAND Distribution Services
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
Dubious Battles: Aggression, Defeat, and the International System
By John Arquilla
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
The Emergence of Noopolitik: Toward an American Information Strategy
 By John Arquilla, David F Ronfeldt, Office of the Secretary of Defense, National Defense
Research Institute (U.S., Inc NetLibrary, Dept. of Defense, United States
This study discusses the opportunities that may be raised by the emergence of noopolitik--ranging from construction of noosphere to recommendations.
Publisher: Rand
In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age
 By John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, National Defense Research Institute &U, United States Dept. of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense, National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
Essays about conflict in the information age that show how the information revolution is altering the nature of conflict.
Publisher: The Rand Corporation
From Troy to Entebbe: Special Operations in Ancient and Modern Times
 By John Arquilla
Special operations have played a key role throughout the history of conflict from the Trojan War to the great arms struggles of the 20th century. This volume introduces the reader to the broad sweep of the history of special operations.
Publisher: University Press of America
The Reagan Imprint: Ideas in American Foreign Policy from the Collapse of Communism to the War on Terror
 By John Arquilla
A balanced analysis--neither an attack nor an apology--of Ronald Reagan's influence on worldpolitics and the United States position in the international community as a result
Publisher: IVAN R DEE INC
Swarming and the Future of Conflict
 By John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, United States Dept. of Defense, United States
Swarming is a seemingly amorphous, but deliberately structured, coordinated, strategic way to perform military strikes from all directions. It employs a sustainable pulsing of force and/or fire that is directed from both close-in and stand-off positions. It will work best--perhaps it will only work--if it is designed mainly around the deployment of myriad, small, dispersed, networked maneuver units. This calls for an organizational redesign--involving the creation of platoon-like "pods" joined in company-like "clusters"--that would keep but retool the most basic military unit structures. It is similar to the corporate redesign principle of "flattening," which often removes or redesigns middle layers of management. This has proven successful in the ongoing revolution in business affairs and may prove equally useful in the military realm. From command and control of line units to logistics, profound shifts will have to occur to nurture this new "way of war." This study examines the benefits--and also the costs and risks--of engaging in such serious doctrinal change. The emergence of a military doctrine based on swarming pods and clusters requires that defense policymakers develop new approaches to connectivity and control and achieve a new balance between the two. Far more than traditional approaches to battle, swarming clearly depends upon robust information flows. Securing these flows, therefore, can be seen as a necessary condition for successful swarming.
Publisher: Rand
Cyberwar is Coming!
By John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, Rand Corporation
Publisher: Rand
A Decision Modeling Perspective on U.S.-Cuba Relations
By John Arquilla, Rand Corporation, United States
This monograph forms part of a larger study of Cuba in the post-Cold War world. It focuses primarily on understanding and influencing Fidel Castro, although its findings should also have value for studies that examine transitional paths away from Castroism. The analytic framework employed in this study recognizes that an emphasis on capabilities rather than intentions will likely remain a predominant element in policy planning. Nevertheless, it suggests that understanding an opponent's reasoning can generate useful, often counterintuitive insights, allowing for the pursuit of optimal strategies under conditions of uncertainty.
Publisher: Rand
Deterring Or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein
By Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla, United States
Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Staff, United States Joint Chiefs of Staff,
National Defense Research Institute (Rand Corporation),
Rand Corporation, National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
"National Defense Research Institute"--Cover.
Publisher: Rand
Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies
By John Arquilla, Paul K. Davis, United States
Central Intelligence Agency. Office of Research and Development,
Rand Corporation National Security Research Division
"Prepared for the Office of Research and Development, Central Intelligence Agency."
Publisher: Rand
Predicting Military Innovation
 By Jeffrey Alan Isaacson, Christopher Layne, John Arquilla, Rand Corporation, Arroyo Center
Although military technology is increasingly available and affordable, not all states have the capacity to improve military effectiveness by acquiring hardware. Integrative difficulties--in command structures, doctrine and tactics, training, and support--are common in the developing world, and many states will have to find some level of innovation to overcome such difficulties if they are to use military technologies effectively. This annotated briefing documents a research effort aimed at understanding and predicting how militaries may improve their battlefield effectiveness. The briefing first analyzes military innovation conceptually and then formulates a framework for predicting the likelihood of innovative success. The research synthesizes a broad literature on innovation and provides a useful tool for assessing future military developments
Publisher: Rand
Extended Deterrence, Compellence, and the "Old World Order"
By John Arquilla, Paul K. Davis, United States Joint Chiefs of Staff
This Note is the companion piece to earlier work, which described a methodology for analyzing and gaming opponent reasoning and reported on its employment during and after the recent conflict with Iraq. It examines four crises in which either British or U.S. interests were threatened, testing the key decisionmakers for the "limited rationality" and for the incrementalist or more goal-driven approach to risk taking. It also identifies the policy implications of these case studies at both the broad strategic and the crisis-specific levels, and evaluates the relative effectiveness of the military and economic tools of political coercion. The workhorse of British and U.S. policies has been the strategy of extended deterrence. The authors explore the disjunction between the theory and practice of extended deterrence in each of the cases they survey. Aside from the decisionmaking problems caused by time constraints and imperfect information, there are powerful general psychological influences--of which frustration and positive or negative feelings about one's current situation are the most important. Also, aggressors routinely underestimate the effects of their opponents' maritime capabilities for blockade, strategic lift, and bombardment, suggesting that a form of "analytic bias" is present. The policy implications are (1) U.S. decisionmakers and their staff organizations must habituate themselves to the practice of carrying along multiple models of opponent reasoning; and (2) in some cases, the United States must be prepared to give unambiguous political and military warning in the face of looming crisis, necessitating bilateral or multilateral treaties with friendly nations in areas of vital interest.
Publisher: Rand
Thinking about Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion
By Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla
Publisher: Rand
Theory of Interstate War
By John Arquilla
Submitted to the Department of Political Science.
Publisher: Stanford University
Information Strategy and Warfare: A Guide to Theory and Practice
By John Arquilla, Douglas A. Borer
Develops information strategy as a construct equal in importance to military strategy as an influential tool of statecraft. This book explores the rise of the 'information domain' and information strategy as an equal partner alongside traditional military strategy; and the need to consider the organizational implications of information strategy.
Publisher: Routledge
Full Alert: An Arsenal of Ideas for the War Against Terrorism
By James A Thomson, Ian O Lesser, Jerrold D
Green, Daniel L Byman, John Arquilla, David
Ronfeldt, Bruce R Hoffman, Brian Michael Jenkins, John D Woodward, Rand Corporation
Description from Fall 2001 issue.
Publisher: Rand Corp
Allies Or Rivals? The Future of U.S.-Japan Relations
By John Arquilla, Theodore William Karasik, Center for U.S.-Japan Relations (RAND, Center for U.S.-Japan Relations (RAND)
Publisher: Rand
Closing the Gaps: A Strategy for Gaining the Initiative of the War on Terror
By Jeremy Simmons, Chris Manuel, John Arquilla, Special Operations Curriculum, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Center on Terrorism and Irregular Warfare
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) Special Operations Curriculum
Own3d!: The True Story of Governments and Terrorists Fighting It Out on the Internet
By John Arquilla, Michael Wilson
Publisher: O'Reilly Media, Incorporated
Worst Enemy: The Reluctant Transformation of the American Military
By The Faltering Quest for American Military, The Faltering Quest for American Military Transformation, John Arquilla
Worst Enemy offers an inside analysis of the events that have derailed our efforts to transform the nation's military into a leaner, lighter, and much more networked force. Mr. Arquilla places these events in historical context and assesses Donald Rumsfeld's role as secretary of defense of the post-9/11 era. Beyond articulating a thorough critique of what has gone wrong, he outlines new solutions, in detail, to remedy the ills that beset American defense policy, including the elimination of the Pentagon, the end of strategic bombing strategy, and force reductions to 100,000 in each of the main services.
Publishers: Natl Book Network & Military doctrine
U.S. Regional Deterrence Strategies
 By Kenneth Watman, Dean Wilkening, John Arquilla, United States Army, United States Air Force, Brian Nichiporuk, Arroyo Center, Rand Corporation
To be successful, deterrence requires credible threats. The most important capabilities are those that can promptly deny the adversary's objectives, but the United States must choose the time and place for making these deterrent threats with care.
Publisher: Rand Corporation
“[O]ur military today oversees spending of about a billion and a quarter dollars every day. Most of that is misspent. Over this past quarter-century, we've reinforced an old industrial-policy military with hardware that makes increasingly less sense, spending most on things that provide the least return. The principal argument for that is: ‘We have is misspent. Over this past quarter-century, we've reinforced an old industrial-policy military with hardware that makes increasingly less sense, spending most on things that provide the least return. The principal argument for that is: ‘We have to keep the big, old-style military because we might fight a big, old-style war one day.’ But in the future the bigger you are, the harder you're going to fall to ever-more accurate weapons.”
Worst Enemy: The Reluctant Transformation of the American Military (Hardcover)
by John Arquilla (Author)
Countering the New Terrorism
 by Ian Lesser (Author), John Arquilla (Author), Bruce Hoffman (Author), David F. Ronfeldt (Author), Michele Zanini (Author)
The Advent of Netwar (Paperback)
By John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt
Louder than words: Tacit communication in international crises (Rand reprints) (Unknown Binding)
By John Arquilla
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